Intelligence Analysis Management
Intelligence Analysis Management is the process of managing and organizing the analytical processing of raw intelligence information into finished intelligence. The terms "analysis", "production", and "processing" all are used in this phase that is informally called "connecting the dots". Creating an "Intelligence mosaic" is a vivid descriptor for the process. Analysis, processing, and production are all names for the organizing and evaluating of raw information, and putting it in a form in which it can be disseminated to varying consumers. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and levels of detail.
While analysis goes back to the beginning of history, Sherman Kent is often considered the father of modern intelligence analysis. He wrote extensively both in open and classified sources, including a seminal 1947 book, Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy . In a long career in the Office of Strategic Services and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), he defined many of the parameters of modern analysis and its use by policymakers. In particular, Kent disagreed with the philosophy that analysts never recommend policy, but advise policymakers. "Intelligence analysts are needed because policy officials face challenges that analysts can help them manage, Kent would argue, through mastery of background knowledge, evaluation and structuring of all-source material, and tradecraft expertise. While attentive to problems not yet on the policymaker’s screen, the analyst’s first responsibility is to accommodate clients by producing assessments timed to their decision cycle and focused on their learning curve. This includes providing actionable intelligence that can help with curbing threats and seizing policy opportunities." He considered it a partnership, but one in which the analyst did not push a personal point of view: "He would have opposed providing analyses that were intended for use by one set of policy players to force its views on others. For estimative analysis, this requires paying serious attention to seemingly less likely outcomes. For action analysis, this means identifying and evaluating alternatives, leaving to policy clients the responsibility to recommend and choose.... Kent saw no excuse for policy or political bias. He realized, however, that analytic or cognitive bias was so ingrained in mental processes for tackling complex and fluid issues that it required a continuous, deliberate struggle to minimize... he taught analysts to resist the tendency to see what they expect to see in the information. He urged special caution when a whole team of analysts immediately agrees on an interpretation of yesterday’s development or a prediction about tomorrow’s.... One path he recommended for coping with cognitive bias was to make working assumptions explicit and to challenge them vigorously."
Some intelligence disciplines, especially technical ones, will analyze the same raw data in different ways, for complementary purposes. For example, a signals intelligence collection platform will record all the electromagnetic signals it received from an antenna pointed to a particular target at a particular time.
Assuming the target was a radar, the ELINT analysts would be focused on the purpose and coverage of the radar. The MASINT analysts, however, would be looking for patterns not in the intentional signals of the radar, or side frequencies that were inadvertently generated.
In like manner, if the target were a voice communication, the COMINT specialists would be concentrating on the content of the message, but acoustic MASINT technicians might be "voiceprinting" the spoken words to validate that it was really from the supposed source. While Morse code telegraphy is largely obsolete, each operator has a distinct rhythm known as a "fist". Experienced telegraph intercept operators could recognize radio deception when the fist failed to match the purported operator identity.
A very basic preprocessing step would be translating the collected material into the native language of the analysts, unless, as is desirable, the analysts are fluent in the language of the information.
- Intelligence Assessment :
Intelligence assessment is the development of forecasts of behaviour or recommended courses of action to the leadership of an organization, based on a wide range of available information sources both overt and covert. Assessments are developed in response to requirements declared by the leadership in order to inform decision making. Assessment may be carried out on behalf of a state, military or commercial organisation with a range of available sources of information available to each.
An intelligence assessment reviews both available information and previous assessments for relevance and currency, where additional information is required some collection may be directed by the analyst.
- Process :
Intelligence assessment is based on a customer requirement which may be a standing requirement or tailored to a specific circumstance, a Request for Information (RFI). The "requirement" is passed in to the assessing agency and worked through the intelligence cycle, a structured method for responding to the request for information.
The RFI may indicate in what format the requester prefers to consume the product.
The RFI is reviewed by a Requirements Manager who will then direct appropriate tasks to respond to the request. This will involve a review of existing material, the tasking of new analytical product or the collection of new information to inform an analysis.
New information may be collected through one or more of the various collection disciplines; human source, electronic and communications intercept, imagery or open sources. The nature of the RFI and the urgency placed on it may indicate that some collection types are unsuitable due to the time taken to collect or validate the information gathered. Intelligence gathering disciplines and the sources and methods used are often highly classified and compartmentalised with analysts requiring an appropriate high level of security clearance.
The process of taking known information about situations and entities of importance to the RFI, characterising what is known and attempting to forecast future events is termed "all source" assessment, analysis or processing. The analyst uses multiple sources to mutually corroborate, or exclude, the information collected, reaching a conclusion along with a measure of confidence around that conclusion.
Where sufficient current information already exists the analysis may be tasked directly without reference to further collection. The analysis is then communicated back to the requester in the format directed, although subject to the constraints on both the RFI and the methods used in the analysis may be made available for other uses as well and disseminated accordingly. The analysis will be written to a defined classification level with alternative versions potentially available at a number of classification levels for further dissemination.
- Target Centric Intelligence Cycle :
Target centric intelligence cycle
- Where the subject of the assessment is clearly identifiable and provisions exist to make some form of intervention against that subject the target centric assessment approach may be used. This approach, known as F3EA, is complementary to the intelligence cycle and focussed on the intervention itself.
- The subject for action, or target, is identified and efforts are initially made to find the target for further development. This activity will identify where intervention against the target will have the most beneficial effects.
- When the decision is made to intervene action is taken to fix the target, confirming that the intervention will have a high probability of success and restricting the ability of the target to take independent action.
- During the finish stage the intervention is executed, potentially an arrest or detention or the placement of other collection methods.
- Following the intervention exploitation of the target is carried out which may lead to further refinement of the process for related targets. the output from the exploit stage will also be passed into other intelligence assessment activities.
- Business Analysis Techniques > Pestle :
Business Analysis Techniques
There are a number of generic business techniques that a Business Analyst will use when facilitating business change. Some of these techniques include :
This is used to perform an external environmental analysis by examining the many different external factors affecting an organization. The six attributes of PESTLE :
- Political (Current and potential influences from political pressures)
- Economic (The local, national and world economy impact)
- Sociological (The ways in which a society can affect an organization)
- Technological (The effect of new and emerging technology)
- Legal (The effect of national and world legislation)
- Environmental (The local, national and world environmental issues)
- Business Analysis Techniques > HEPTALYSIS :
This is used to perform an in-depth analysis of early stage businesses/ventures on seven important categories :
- Market opportunity
- Execution plan
- Financial engine
- Human capital
- Potential return
- Margin of safety
- Business Analysis Techniques > MOST :
This is used to perform an internal environmental analysis by defining the attributes of MOST to ensure that the project you are working on is aligned to each of the 4 attributes.
The four attributes of MOST :
- Mission (where the business intends to go)
- Objectives (the key goals which will help achieve the mission)
- Strategies (options for moving forward)
- Tactics (how strategies are put into action)
- Business Analysis Techniques > SWOT:
This is used to help focus activities into areas of strength and where the greatest opportunities lie. This is used to identify the dangers that take the form of weaknesses and both internal and external threats.
The four attributes of SWOT analysis :
- Strengths - What are the advantages? What is currently done well? (e.g. key area of best-performing activities of your company)
- Weaknesses - What could be improved? What is done badly? (e.g. key area where you are performing poorly)
- Opportunities - What good opportunities face the organization? (e.g. key area where your competitors are performing poorly)
- Threats - What obstacles does the organization face? (e.g. key area where your competitor will perform well)
- Business Analysis Techniques > CATWOE :
This is used to prompt thinking about what the business is trying to achieve. Business perspectives help the business analyst to consider the impact of any proposed solution on the people involved.
There are six elements of CATWOE :
- Customers - Who are the beneficiaries of the highest level business process and how does the issue affect them ?
- Actors - Who is involved in the situation, who will be involved in implementing solutions and what will impact their success ?
- Transformation Process - What processes or systems are affected by the issue ?
- World View - What is the big picture and what are the wider impacts of the issue ?
- Owner - Who owns the process or situation being investigated and what role will they play in the solution ?
- Environmental Constraints - What are the constraints and limitations that will impact the solution and its success ?
- Business Analysis Techniques > de Bono's Six Thinking Hats :
de Bono's Six Thinking Hats
This is often used in a brainstorming session to generate and analyse ideas and options. It is useful to encourage specific types of thinking and can be a convenient and symbolic way to request someone to “switch gears". It involves restricting the group to only thinking in specific ways - giving ideas & analysis in the “mood” of the time. Also known as the Six Thinking Hats.
- White: Pure facts, logical.
- Green: Creative, emotional.
- Yellow: Bright, optimistic, positive.
- Black: Negative, devil’s advocate.
- Red: Emotional.
- Blue: Cold, control.
- Not all colors / moods have to be used
- Business Analysis Techniques > Five Whys :
Five Whys is used to get to the root of what is really happening in a single instance. For each answer given a further 'why' is asked.
- Business Analysis Techniques > MoSCoW :
This is used to prioritize requirements by allocating an appropriate priority, gauging it against the validity of the requirement itself and its priority against other requirements.
- Must have - or else delivery will be a failure
- Should have - otherwise will have to adopt a workaround
- Could have - to increase delivery satisfaction
- Would like to have in the future - but won't have now
- Business Analysis Techniques > VPEC-T :
This technique is used when analyzing the expectations of multiple parties having different views of a system in which they all have an interest in common, but have different priorities and different responsibilities.
- Values - constitute the objectives, beliefs and concerns of all parties participating. They may be financial, social, tangible and intangible
- Policies - constraints that govern what may be done and the manner in which it may be done
- Events - real-world proceedings that stimulate activity
- Content - the meaningful portion of the documents, conversations, messages, etc. that are produced and used by all aspects of business activity
- Trust - between users of the system and their right to access and change information within it
- Business Analysis Techniques > SCRS :
The SCRS approach in Business Analysis claims that the analysis should flow from the high level business strategy to the solution, through the current state and the requirements. The SCRS is standing for:
- Current State
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